Detecting the human fingerprint in the summer 2022 western–central European soil drought

Much of Europe has not witnessed a more severe soil drought since at least the mid-20th century, raising the question whether this is a manifestation of our warming climate. Here, we employ a well-established statistical approach to attribute the low 2022 summer soil moisture to human-induced climate change using observation-driven soil moisture estimates and climate models.

We find that in western-central Europe, a June-August root zone soil moisture drought such as in 2022 is expected to occur once in 20 years in the present climate but would have occurred only about once per century during preindustrial times. The entire northern extratropics show an even stronger global warming imprint with a 20-fold soil drought probability increase or higher, but we note that the underlying uncertainty is large.