Towards characterizing the variability of statistically consistent Community Earth System Model simulations

The recently developed Community Earth System Model (CESM) Ensemble Consistency Test (CESM-ECT) provides an objective measure of statistical consistency for new CESM simulation runs, which has greatly facilitated error detection and rapid feedback for model users and developers. CESM-ECT determines consistency based on an ensemble of simulations that represent the same earth system model.

Its statistical distribution embodies the natural variability of the model. Clearly the composition of the employed ensemble is critical to CESM-ECT's effectiveness. In this work we examine whether the composition of the CESM-ECT ensemble is adequate for characterizing the variability of a consistent climate.