Dynamical seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone activity: Robust assessment of prediction skill and predictability

Using the resampling technique, this study analyzes a state-of-the-art prediction system and offers a robust assessment of when and where the seasonal prediction of TC activity is skillful. We found that uncertainties of initial conditions affect the predictions and the skill evaluation significantly.

The sensitivity of predictions to initial conditions also suggests that landfall and high-latitude activity are inherently harder to predict. The lower predictability is consistent with the relatively low prediction skill in these regions. Additionally, the lower predictability is largely related to the atmospheric environment rather than the sea surface temperature, at least for the predictions initialized shortly before the hurricane season.