Data · dataset · 2026
Internal variability and regional climate trends in an observational large ensemble
Listed in National Center for Atmospheric Research
Recent observed climate trends result from a combination of external radiative forcing and internally generated variability.
Description
To better contextualize these trends and forecast future ones, it is necessary to properly model the spatiotemporal properties of the internal variability. Here, a statistical model is developed for terrestrial temperature and precipitation, and global sea level pressure, based upon monthly gridded observational datasets that span 1921-2014.
The model is used to generate a synthetic ensemble, each member of which has a unique sequence of internal variability but with statistical properties similar to the observational record. This synthetic ensemble is combined with estimates of the externally forced response from climate models to produce an observational large ensemble (OBS-LE). The 1000 members of the OBS-LE display considerable diversity in their 50-yr regional climate trends, indicative of the importance of internal variability on multidecadal time scales.
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For example, unforced atmospheric circulation trends associated with the northern annular mode can induce winter temperature trends over Eurasia that are comparable in magnitude to the forced trend over the past 50 years. Similarly, the contribution of internal variability to winter precipitation trends is large across most of the globe, leading to substantial regional uncertainties in the amplitude and, in some cases, the sign of the 50-yr trend.
The OBS-LE provides a real-world counterpart to initial-condition model ensembles. The approach could be expanded to using paleo-proxy data to simulate longer-term variability.
Links
Get the data
- Publisher page n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7m90ch3 ↗
documentation · download · from data ucar edu
Where it is published
- data.ucar.edu /dataset/internal-variability-and-regional-climate-trends-in-an… ↗
National Center for Atmospheric Research dataset page
landing page · from data ucar edu
Catalogue records · 1
- CKAN API data.ucar.edu/api/3/action/package_show?id=dd0a72b1-4295-4df7-8c16-ec607404b… ↗
metadata API · from data ucar edu
Topics
- From keywords
- Earth & Environmental Science · Ocean & Atmospheric Science
- Inferred from text
- Climate change science 73%
Provenance · 1 source records, 8 field assertions
| Source | Key | Last seen | Raw |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Center for Atmospheric Research | dd0a72b1-4295-4df7-8c16-ec607404b872 | 11 d ago | JSON v1 |
| Field | Assertion | Extractor | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| concepts[field].anzsrc:group:3702 | enrichment · data ucar edu | taxonomy-embedding@1.1.0 | title+keywords+description (73%) |
| concepts[field].local:field:earth-environmental | mapping · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| concepts[field].local:field:ocean-atmospheric | mapping · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| created_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| description | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | /notes |
| publication_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| title | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | /title |
| updated_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 |