The role of unresolved clouds on short-range global horizontal irradiance predictability

The ensembles use the stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme (SKEBS) to account for implicit model uncertainty. Results indicate that parameterizing the radiative effects of both deep and shallow cumulus clouds is necessary to largely reduce (55%) a systematic overprediction of the global horizontal irradiance.

Accounting for the model's effective resolution is necessary to mitigate the underdispersive nature of the ensemble and provide meaningful quantification of the short-range prediction uncertainties.