The Examination and Analysis of Cognitive Consistency of Budget Makers and their Resource Allocation Decisions

Mid-term revenue and expenditure forecasting has been an important part underlying this new system. Because of the uncertainty and longer forecasting terms, human judgments and judgment forecasting tend to play a significant role in mid-term revenue and expenditure forecasting.

Accordingly, the study explores the importance of judgment forecasting by virtue of Social Judgment Theory and the accompanying framework of Lens Model. A case study of the excise tax was administered to expert forecasters in the Directorate General of Budget Accounting and Statistics and the Ministry of Finance as well as graduate students. The results indicated that the forecasting consistency and accuracy of the expert forecasters are better than those of graduate students.