Predicting mosquito density and distribution in China under climate change

In this study, we propose to use a random forest model to simulate the monthly density and distribution of mosquitoes in China during the first (2030), middle (2050), late (2070), and last (2090) years of this century. The primary dominant mosquito species involved were Anopheles sinensis, Culex tritaeniorhynchus, and Aedes albopictus, and four climate change scenarios, SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585, were simulated.

The findings of this study serve to enhance our comprehension of the ecological principles governing mosquito populations, thereby providing a scientific foundation for informed decision-making within the public health sector. This knowledge facilitates a strategic transition from a reactive response to a proactive approach, focusing on prevention and control. This shift is of paramount importance in ensuring the security of public health.