Data for: Coral adaptive capacity insufficient to halt global transition of coral reefs into net erosion under climate change

We show that symbiont evolution and shuffling both individually and when combined favours persistent positive net reef calcium carbonate production. However, our projections of future net calcium carbonate production under climate change vary both spatially and by RCP. For example, 19–35% of modelled coral reefs are still projected to have net positive net calcium carbonate production by 2050 if symbionts can evolve increased thermal tolerance, depending on the RCP.

Without symbiont adaptive capacity, the number of coral reefs with positive net calcium carbonate production drops to 9–13% by 2050. Accounting for both symbiont evolution and shuffling, we project median positive net calcium carbonate production of coral reefs will still occur under low greenhouse emissions (RCP2.6) in the Indian Ocean, and even under moderate emissions (RCP4.5) in the Pacific Ocean. However, adaptive capacity will be insufficient to halt the transition of coral reefs globally into erosion by 2050 under severe emissions scenarios (RCP8.5).

Methods

See the methods of the paper.