Data · dataset · 2026
Predicting tephra dispersion with a mesoscale atmospheric model and a particle fall model: Application of Cerro Negro volcano
Listed in National Center for Atmospheric Research
Models of volcanic ash (tephra) fallout are increasingly used to assess volcanic hazards in advance of eruptions and in nearreal time.
Description
These models often approximate the wind field using simplistic assumptions of the atmosphere that do not account for four-dimensional variations in wind velocity. The fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) is used to improve forecasts of tephra dispersion.
MM5 is a 3D model that can predict circulations in areas with sparse meteorological observations and complex terrain, such as volcanic plateaus. MM5 is applied to the 1995 eruption of Cerro Negro, Nicaragua. Validation of MM5 is achieved by comparing the simulated winds with rawinsonde observations.
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Estimates of diffusivity and particle settling velocities are used in conjunction with MM5-generated wind fields to forecast the major axes of the tephra dispersion. The predicted axes of dispersion derived from the MM5 winds approximate very closely the observed bilobate tephra accumulation and tephra plumes observed in satellite images. MM5 winds provide far more accurate spatial and temporal forecasts than do the wind assumptions that had been used previously to assess Cerro Negro tephra hazard.
Links
Get the data
- Publisher page n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7vm4cgf ↗
documentation · download · from data ucar edu
Where it is published
- data.ucar.edu /dataset/predicting-tephra-dispersion-with-a-mesoscale-atmosphe… ↗
National Center for Atmospheric Research dataset page
landing page · from data ucar edu
Catalogue records · 1
- CKAN API data.ucar.edu/api/3/action/package_show?id=bb9c20f5-8155-44f2-a860-f49ecfb42… ↗
metadata API · from data ucar edu
Topics
- From keywords
- Earth & Environmental Science · Ocean & Atmospheric Science
- Inferred from text
- Image 65%
Provenance · 1 source records, 8 field assertions
| Source | Key | Last seen | Raw |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Center for Atmospheric Research | bb9c20f5-8155-44f2-a860-f49ecfb420d3 | 12 d ago | JSON v1 |
| Field | Assertion | Extractor | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| concepts[field].local:field:earth-environmental | mapping · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| concepts[field].local:field:ocean-atmospheric | mapping · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| concepts[modality].local:modality:image | enrichment · data ucar edu | keyword-concept-rules@1.0.0 | title+description (65%) |
| created_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| description | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | /notes |
| publication_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| title | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | /title |
| updated_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 |