Displacement error characteristics of 500-hPa cutoff lows in operational GFS forecasts

However, medium-range forecasts of upper-level features using the Global Forecast System (GFS) are often subjectively characterized by excessive synoptic progressiveness, i.e., a tendency to advance troughs and cutoff lows too quickly downstream.

To better understand synoptic progressiveness errors, this research quantifies seven years of 500-hPa cutoff low position errors over the globe, with the goal of objectively identifying regions where synoptic progressiveness errors are common and how frequently these errors occur. Specifically, 500-hPa features are identified and tracked in 0-240-h 0.25 degrees GFS forecasts during April 2015- March 2022 using an objective cutoff low and trough identification scheme and compared to corresponding 500-hPa GFS analyses.