Data · dataset · 2026
The magnitude and causes of global drought changes in the twenty-first century under a low-moderate emissions scenario
Listed in National Center for Atmospheric Research
Atmospheric demand for moisture and dry days are expected to increase, leading to drying over land in the twenty-first century.
Description
Here, the magnitude and key drivers of this drying are investigated using model simulations under a low-moderate scenario, RCP4.5. The self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index with the Penman-Monteith potential evapotranspiration (PET) (sc_PDSI_pm), top 10-cm soil moisture (SM), and runoff (R) from 14 models are analyzed.
The change patterns are found to be comparable while the magnitude differs among these measures of drought. The frequency of the SM-based moderate (severe) agricultural drought could increase by 50%-100% (100%-200%) in a relative sense by the 2090s over most of the Americas, Europe, and southern Africa and parts of East and West Asia and Australia. Runoff-based hydrological drought frequency could also increase by 10%-50% over most land areas despite increases in mean runoff.
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The probability density functions (PDFs) flatten, enhancing the drought increases induced primarily by decreases in the mean. Precipitation (P) and evapotranspiration (E) changes contribute to the SM change; whereas decreases in sc_PDSI_pm result from ubiquitous PET increases of 10%-20% with contributions from decreased P over subtropical areas. Rising temperatures and vapor deficits explain most of the PET increase, which in turn explains most of the E increases over Asia and northern North America while decreased SM leads to lower E over the rest of the world.
Radiation and wind speed changes have only small effects on future PET and drought. Globally, runoff ratio changes little while P, E, and R all increase by about 4%-5% in the twenty-first century.
Links
Get the data
- Publisher page n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7gf0vp8 ↗
documentation · download · from data ucar edu
Where it is published
- data.ucar.edu /dataset/the-magnitude-and-causes-of-global-drought-changes-in-… ↗
National Center for Atmospheric Research dataset page
landing page · from data ucar edu
Catalogue records · 1
- CKAN API data.ucar.edu/api/3/action/package_show?id=5cc17ee0-c4c8-49be-a455-c37c2a16e… ↗
metadata API · from data ucar edu
Topics
- From keywords
- Earth & Environmental Science · Ocean & Atmospheric Science
Provenance · 1 source records, 7 field assertions
| Source | Key | Last seen | Raw |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Center for Atmospheric Research | 5cc17ee0-c4c8-49be-a455-c37c2a16e51e | 10 d ago | JSON v1 |
| Field | Assertion | Extractor | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| concepts[field].local:field:earth-environmental | mapping · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| concepts[field].local:field:ocean-atmospheric | mapping · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| created_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| description | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | /notes |
| publication_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| title | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | /title |
| updated_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 |