A phylogeographic analysis of <i>Achillea maritima</i> (cottonweed), with an assessment of the impacts of future climate change on distributions across the species range

Achillea maritima is an obligate species of coastal sand dunes, which is experiencing declines in numerous regions throughout its range. The Irish population which represents the northern limit of the species is critically endangered, and in need of decisive conservation action to prevent local extinction.

In this study we have used a combined approach of phylogeography and species distribution modelling to determine the genetic diversity of the species across its range and the potential impacts of climate change on the species. The results show that A. maritima has a low level of genetic diversity across its distribution with no diversity within any of the populations fringing the Atlantic Ocean. Species distributions models display an increasing suitability in northern latitudes, with Ireland becoming more climatically suitable in the future.