Resilience and adaptation of First Nations communities in Canada to disappearing winter road infrastructure in a changing climate

Surveys and interviews in a Manitoba First Nations community complement the research, applying a decolonising approach.<br>The new spatial dataset of public winter roads for the 2022-2023 season illustrates some all-season replacements and the routing of ice roads onto land. The 1952-2022 trends of winter warming, shorter periods of consecutive freezing, and lower ice thickness will continue in the future and increasingly differ between study sites.

In 2049-2069, the ice thickness at some locations will no longer support construction equipment under a high emissions scenario. Despite the remoteness of York Factory First Nation leading to higher living costs, educational deprivation, and a housing crisis, most community members surveyed feel culturally equipped to adapt to the uncertainty and unreliability of winter roads under climate change. This could be further improved through a coordinated, high-resolution, and equitable integration of climate, hydrology, and geology data and traditional knowledge.<br><br><i>Thesis embargoed until 31st December 2027.</i><br>