The stability of an evolving Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

As an improvement from previous indicators for the AMOC in equilibrium, this generalized indicator does not require a divergence-free freshwater transport in the Atlantic for a collapsed AMOC, which enables it to correctly monitor the AMOC stability through the AMOC hysteresis loop in the coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models.

From the simulation, the indicator L suggests that the AMOC is in a stable regime, with single equilibrium under the present-day and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climates. However, under the present-day climate, a Bering Strait (BS) closure will diminish the freshwater outflow from the North Atlantic into the Arctic as the AMOC collapses, resulting in a freshwater convergence in the Atlantic basin and making the AMOC reside in a stable collapsed state, i.e., the AMOC exhibits characteristics of multiple equilibria.