The Red Sea Response: A Time-Series Analysis of Coalition Intervention Against the Houthis

Using incident-level data from coalition strike reports and maritime attack logs, the study applies time-series generalized linear models to assess how coalition activity influences both the frequency and success of Houthi operations. The analysis reveals a heterogeneous temporal effect: coalition strikes are associated with a short-term increase in Houthi attack activity followed by a longer-term decrease in attack frequency, suggesting partial degradation of operational capacity.

However, coalition operations do not produce a meaningful reduction in attack success rates, indicating that while attacks become less frequent, they remain similarly effective.<br><br>Further analysis of weapon systems shows that Houthi attacks relying on ballistic missiles and drones, especially used in conjunction, are the most operationally effective, highlighting the strategic advantages of low-cost, precision-guided technologies in asymmetric warfare.