Predicting how climate change threatens the prey base of Arctic marine predators

All changes were relatively negligible under the low-emission scenario, but under the high-emission scenario, we projected a 50% decline in the abundance of the well-distributed, ice-adapted, and energy-rich Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida) and an increase in the abundance of smaller temperate-associated fish in southern and coastal areas. Further, our model predicted that all fish species declined in mean body size, but a 29% increase in total prey biomass.

Declines in energy-rich prey and restrictions in their spatial range are likely to have cascading effects on Arctic predators.