Modelling the Effects of Timber Harvest and Harvest Site Selection on Burn Probability

This study investigates the impact of timber harvesting on wildfire likelihood, focusing on the Mount Rose Swanson Sensitive Area (RSSA) in British Columbia, Canada. Using the Burn-P3 model, three scenarios were simulated: no harvest, harvest in high fire threat areas, and harvest in extreme fire threat areas.

The Burn-P3 model simulates fire ignition and growth to calculate burn probabilities across the landscape. Results indicate that timber harvesting increases burn probability, with the highest probabilities observed in extreme fire threat zones. Within the RSSA, burn probabilities were consistently higher, reinforcing the vulnerability of this area.