Data · dataset · 2026
Towards dynamical seasonal forecast of extratropical transition in the North Atlantic
Listed in National Center for Atmospheric Research
Extratropical transition can extend the threat of tropical cyclones into the midlatitudes and modify it through expansion of rainfall and wind fields.
Description
Despite the scientific and socioeconomic interest, the seasonal forecast of extratropical transition has received little attention. The GFDL High-Resolution Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR) model (HiFLOR) shows skill in seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone frequency as well as major hurricanes.
A July-initialized 12-member ensemble retrospective seasonal forecast experiment with HiFLOR in the North Atlantic is conducted, representing one of the very first attempts to predict the extratropical transition activity months in advance. HiFLOR exhibits retrospective skill in seasonal forecasts of basin-wide and regional ET activity relative to best track and reanalysis data. In contrast, the skill of HiFLOR in predictions of non-ET activity is limited.
Read the rest (1 more)
Future work targeted at improved predictions of non-ET storms provides a path for enhanced TC activity forecasting.
Links
Get the data
- Publisher page n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7sb48qz ↗
documentation · download · from data ucar edu
Where it is published
- data.ucar.edu /dataset/towards-dynamical-seasonal-forecast-of-extratropical-t… ↗
National Center for Atmospheric Research dataset page
landing page · from data ucar edu
Catalogue records · 1
- CKAN API data.ucar.edu/api/3/action/package_show?id=788a61ef-439b-4193-8e4d-b9e8b8a29… ↗
metadata API · from data ucar edu
Topics
- From keywords
- Earth & Environmental Science · Ocean & Atmospheric Science
Provenance · 1 source records, 7 field assertions
| Source | Key | Last seen | Raw |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Center for Atmospheric Research | 788a61ef-439b-4193-8e4d-b9e8b8a29503 | 12 d ago | JSON v1 |
| Field | Assertion | Extractor | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| concepts[field].local:field:earth-environmental | mapping · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| concepts[field].local:field:ocean-atmospheric | mapping · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| created_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| description | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | /notes |
| publication_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| title | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | /title |
| updated_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 |