Predicting near-term variability in ocean carbon uptake

Here, we quantify and understand the sources of near-term predictability and predictive skill in air-sea CO2 flux on global and regional scales by analyzing output from a novel set of retrospective decadal forecasts of an Earth system model.

These forecasts exhibit the potential to predict year-to-year variations in the globally integrated air-sea CO2 flux several years in advance, as indicated by the high correlation of the forecasts with a model reconstruction of past CO2 flux evolution. This potential predictability exceeds that obtained solely from foreknowledge of variations in external forcing or a simple persistence forecast, with the longest-lasting forecast enhancement in the subantarctic Southern Ocean and the northern North Atlantic.