High-resolution assessment of spatiotemporal changes in China’s multiple cropping potential under future climate scenarios

Under higher-emission scenarios, area conductive to double- and triple- cropping expands whereas those suitable for single cropping contracts, with peak improvements occurring earliest under SSP5-8.5 and latest under SSP1-2.6. These projections represent changes in climatic suitability rather than overall agricultural benefits. These findings reveal substantial but spatially heterogeneous potential for cropping intensification and provide a scientific basis for regionally targeted agricultural adaptation.</p> <p></p><p>A 5 km CMIP6–GAEZ framework maps China’s future multiple cropping potential.</p><p>Over 60% of cropland shows improvement potential, with hotspots in Yangtze, Sichuan, Huang–Huai–Hai.</p><p>Double and triple cropping potential expands and peaks earliest under SSP5-8.5.</p><p>Irrigation modestly increases modeled potential, with regional differences.</p><p>PIMCI supports spatial screening for region-specific climate adaptation.</p><p></p> <p>A 5 km CMIP6–GAEZ framework maps China’s future multiple cropping potential.</p> <p>Over 60% of cropland shows improvement potential, with hotspots in Yangtze, Sichuan, Huang–Huai–Hai.</p> <p>Double and triple cropping potential expands and peaks earliest under SSP5-8.5.</p> <p>Irrigation modestly increases modeled potential, with regional differences.</p> <p>PIMCI supports spatial screening for region-specific climate adaptation.</p>