Relationships among top-of-atmosphere radiation and atmospheric state variables in observations and CESM

The 30-member large ensemble coupled runs are analyzed along with one run with specified sea surface temperatures for 1994 to 2005 (to avoid volcanic eruptions).

The vertical structure of the CESM temperature profile tends to be top heavy in the model, with too much deep convection and not enough lower stratospheric cooling as part of the response to tropospheric heating. There is too much absorbed solar radiation (ASR) over the Southern Oceans and not enough in the tropics, and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is too large in amplitude in this version of the model. However, the covariability of monthly mean anomalies produces remarkably good replication of most of the observed relationships.