Global premature mortality due to anthropogenic outdoor air pollution and the contribution of past climate change

Here we use modeled concentrations from an ensemble of chemistry-climate models to estimate the global burden of anthropogenic outdoor air pollution on present-day premature human mortality, and the component of that burden attributable to past climate change.

Using simulated concentrations for 2000 and 1850 and concentration-response functions (CRFs), we estimate that, at present, 470,000 (95% confidence interval, 140,000 to 900,000) premature respiratory deaths are associated globally and annually with anthropogenic ozone, and 2.1 (1.3 to 3.0) million deaths with anthropogenic PM2.5-related cardiopulmonary diseases (93%) and lung cancer (7%). These estimates are smaller than ones from previous studies because we use modeled 1850 air pollution rather than a counterfactual low concentration, and because of different emissions.