Hysteretic temperature sensitivity of wetland CH4 fluxes explained by substrate availability and microbial activity: Model Archive

CH4 emissions from terrestrial systems are posited to increase, which can offset mitigation efforts and accelerate climate change. Yet, the accuracy of modeled CH4 emissions is sensitive to the prescribed CH4 production (or emission) temperature dependencies that are currently uncertain.

Here, we use a comprehensive biogeochemistry model (ecosys) to investigate factors modulating CH4 production and emission rates across a permafrost thaw gradient encompassing a partly thawed bog and a fully thawed fen. We find that seasonally varying substrate availability drives lower and higher modeled methanogen biomass and activity, and thereby CH4 production, during the earlier and later periods of the thawed season, respectively.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a 10-year research effort (2012-2022) to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate.