Data · dataset · 2026
Simulated trends in ionosphere-thermosphere climate due to predicted main magnetic field changes from 2015 to 2065
Listed in National Center for Atmospheric Research
The strength and structure of the Earth's magnetic field is gradually changing.
Description
During the next 50 years the dipole moment is predicted to decrease by 3.5%, with the South Atlantic Anomaly expanding, deepening, and continuing to move westward, while the magnetic dip poles move northwestward. We used simulations with the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model to study how predicted changes in the magnetic field will affect the climate of the thermosphere-ionosphere system from 2015 to 2065.
The global mean neutral density in the thermosphere is expected to increase slightly, by up to 1% on average or up to 2% during geomagnetically disturbed conditions. This is due to an increase in Joule heating power, mainly in the Southern Hemisphere. Global mean changes in total electron content (TEC) range from 3% to +4%, depending on season and UT.
Read the rest (2 more)
However, regional changes can be much larger, up to about 35% in the region of 45°S to 45°N and 110°W to 0°W during daytime. Changes in the vertical drift are the most important driver of changes in TEC, although other plasma transport processes also play a role. A reduction in the low-latitude upward drift weakens the equatorial ionization anomaly in the longitude sector of 60°W, manifesting itself as a local increase in electron density over Jicamarca (12.0°S, 76.9°W).
The predicted increase in neutral density associated with main magnetic field changes is very small compared to observed trends and other trend drivers, but the predicted changes in TEC could make a significant contribution to observationally detectable trends.
Links
Get the data
- Publisher page n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7cz3bbz ↗
documentation · download · from data ucar edu
Where it is published
- data.ucar.edu /dataset/simulated-trends-in-ionosphere-thermosphere-climate-du… ↗
National Center for Atmospheric Research dataset page
landing page · from data ucar edu
Catalogue records · 1
- CKAN API data.ucar.edu/api/3/action/package_show?id=311b4cf6-d774-405b-9bcb-f3c6dbf50… ↗
metadata API · from data ucar edu
Topics
- From keywords
- Earth & Environmental Science · Ocean & Atmospheric Science
Provenance · 1 source records, 7 field assertions
| Source | Key | Last seen | Raw |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Center for Atmospheric Research | 311b4cf6-d774-405b-9bcb-f3c6dbf50b63 | 12 d ago | JSON v1 |
| Field | Assertion | Extractor | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| concepts[field].local:field:earth-environmental | mapping · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| concepts[field].local:field:ocean-atmospheric | mapping · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| created_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| description | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | /notes |
| publication_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | |
| title | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 | /title |
| updated_date | source · data ucar edu | connector:data_ucar_edu@1.0.0 |