From control to conflict: explaining change in state-militia relationships during armed conflict and civil war

It will explore how and why state-militia relations, for example, might go from acquiescence to delegation or from cooperation to conflict over time. This thesis uses a mixed methods research design. It focuses on Northern Ireland and Colombian case studies as well as examples from other conflicts around the world.

It draws from a wide range of qualitative data, including original archival material from 240 recently declassified files and semi-structured interviews with 19 ex-combatants (both state and non-state). For parts of the analysis this thesis employs quantitative analyses to support the qualitative case study assessments. The thesis contributes to conflict studies by acknowledging and seeking the explain change within state-militia relationships.

Specifically, I find that the perceived intensity of an insurgent threat by states; violent interactions between militias and insurgent groups; and influence from international actors can change how the state and militias respond to one another. In other words, I argue that the interactions between groups within and outside of civil conflict settings can influence state-militia relationships. Interactions with other armed groups shape the intent to which states cooperate with militias and the extent to which militias seek state support.<br><br>This thesis makes several contributions to the literature on militias/paramilitaries and to the conflict literature more broadly.

It presents a new typology of state-militia relationships to understand a wider range of possible relations. While much of the scholarship has explored static “snapshots” of state-militia cooperation, this thesis provides a theorisation and empirical analysis of change in state-militia relationships. In doing so it acknowledges hostility/conflict as a characteristic of many state-militia relationships, which is often ignored in the literature.

It also further explores the agency of militias drawing on in-depth interviews with former militia/paramilitary fighters to get an insight into their strategic relations with states and how they either cooperated with or infiltrated the state.<br><br><i>Thesis is embargoed until 31 July 2030</i>.