Novel methods of modelling glacier mass balance with application to southern Norway

Accordingly a mean error of ~16 % was calculated between the observed and simulated data. Two methodologies were developed to constrain the parameters for use in future mass balance projections for 59 glaciers in two southern Norwegian river basins (Maurangerfjorden and Fjaerlandsfjorden). The first collected various remotely sensed attributes (e.g. length, area and elevation) and inputted them into multiple regression models to calculate <i>T</i>_crit and DDF combinations for glaciers based on physical attributes.

The parameters from the multiple regression models overestimated glacier melt by ~76 % against the historical records. The second method subdivided the Modelling Inventory glaciers into regional subgroups based on geographical proximity, to produce Regional Mean <i>T</i>_crit and DDF combinations. Testing of the Norwegian Regional Mean gave an error reduction of ~63 % compared to mass balance projections from literature parameters. <br><br>The Norwegian Regional Mean parameters were used to project the mass balance for the glaciers of Maurangerfjorden and Fjaerlandsfjorden using three global climate models (GFDL-ESM2M, MPI-ESM-LR and MIROC-ESM) and Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 to 2099.

The majority of annual projections in both river basins are positive mass balances to 2099. Seasonal climate and mass balance analysis indicates the positive mass balances are attributable to increasing winter precipitation with summer ablation decreasing due to a high <i>T</i>_crit and air temperature lapse rate. The results further understanding of TI applications and narrow the scope for methodologies that could be sought to constrain TI parameters.<br><br><i>Thesis embargoed until 31 July 2032</i>.