Increases in extreme precipitation over the Northeast United States using high-resolution climate model simulations

Simulating changes in regional extreme precipitation remains challenging, partially limited by climate models' horizontal resolution. Here, we use an ensemble of high-resolution global climate model simulations to study September-November extreme precipitation over the Northeastern United States, where extremes have increased rapidly since the mid-1990s.

We show that a model with 25 km horizontal resolution simulates much more realistic extreme precipitation than comparable models with 50 or 100 km resolution, including frequency, amplitude, and temporal variability. The 25 km model simulated trends are quantitatively consistent with observed trends over recent decades. We use the same model for future projections.