Influence of assimilating satellite-derived atmospheric motion vector observations on numerical analyses and forecasts of tropical cyclone track and intensity

With an order of magnitude more AMV data assimilated, the CIMSS(h) analyses exhibit a superior track, intensity, and structure to CTL analyses. The corresponding 3-day ensemble forecasts initialized with CIMSS(h) yield smaller track and intensity errors than those initialized with CTL. During the period when rapid-scan AMVs are available, the CIMSS(h+RS) analyses offer additional modifications to the TC and its environment.

In contrast to many members in the ensemble forecasts initialized from the CTL and CIMSS(h) analyses that predict an erroneous landfall in China, the CIMSS(h+RS) members capture recurvature, albeit prematurely. The results demonstrate the promise of assimilating enhanced AMV data into regional TC models. Further studies to identify optimal strategies for assimilating integrated full-resolution multivariate data from satellites are under way.