Observed and simulated full-depth ocean heat-content changes for 1970–2005

Updated observational estimates of full-depth OHC change since 1970 are presented that account for recent advancements in reducing observation errors and biases. The full-depth OHC has increased by 0.74 [0.68, 0.80] x 10(22) J yr(-1) (0.46Wm(-2)) and 1.22 [1.16-1.29] x 10(22) J yr(-1) (0.75Wm(-2)) for 1970-2005 and 1992-2005, respectively, with a 5 to 95% confidence interval of the median.

The CMIP5 models show large spread in OHC changes, suggesting that some models are not state-of-the-art and require further improvements. However, the ensemble median has excellent agreement with our observational estimate: 0.68 [0.54-0.82] x 10(22) J yr(-1) (0.42 Wm(-2)) from 1970 to 2005 and 1.25 [1.10-1.41] x 10(22) J yr(-1) (0.77Wm(-2)) from 1992 to 2005. These results increase confidence in both the observational and model estimates to quantify and study changes in Earth's energy imbalance over the historical period.