KOI transit probabilities of multi-planet syst.

In order to estimate the frequency of these valuable systems, it is essential to account for the unique geometric probabilities of detecting multiple transiting extrasolar planets around the same parent star. In order to improve on previous studies that used numerical methods, we have constructed an efficient, semi-analytical algorithm called the Computed Occurrence of Revolving Bodies for the Investigation of Transiting Systems (CORBITS), which, given a collection of conjectured exoplanets orbiting a star, computes the probability that any particular group of exoplanets can be observed to transit.

The algorithm applies theorems of elementary differential geometry to compute the areas bounded by circular curves on the surface of a sphere. The implemented algorithm is more accurate and orders of magnitude faster than previous algorithms, based on comparisons with Monte Carlo simulations. We use CORBITS to show that the present solar system would only show a maximum of three transiting planets, but that this varies over time due to dynamical evolution.