Early warning systems for financial crises in the conditions of modern Russian economy: specificity and application. Master thesis

It covers such variables as debt/gdp levels for different sectors of the economy (state, households, nonfinancial and financial sector), credit/gdp gap, residential property price statistics, The paper is focused on early warning indicators of financial crises applicable to Russia.

Using the stepwise regression approach the author identifies early warning indicators for banking and currency crises in advanced and emerging market economies. The proposed prediction model for banking crisis in Russia and emerging market economies includes credit gap and real residential property price index growth. The author explores the possibility of inclusion of residential property price index into the informational base for the countercyclical capital buffer estimation by the Bank of Russia.