Long Waves of Economic Cycles

Already at the beginning of the 20th Century it was attempted to demonstrate the existence of economic cycles of a time period of 47 to 60 years by analysing commodity prices, wage levels, interest rate development, etc. The Phenomenon of long-termed economic cycles was recovered and described by the Russian scientist Nikolai Kondratieff.

Kondratieff asks whether he has proved the existence of long waves in a satisfying manner, and if his statistical examinations and their resulting conclusions with regard to long-term cycles justify the use of the term “long waves”. Hereby, he explains, “long waves” meant “that the movement follows a distinct course which could be characterised as ‘waved line’. Furthermore, it can be said that this is not an accidental, but a definitely determined course ...´ (Jöhr, W.A., 1953: Fluctuations of the Economic Cycle [“Die Konjunkturschwankungen”].