Reproductive rate as an index of the environment: 28 years of monitoring Weddell seals in east Antarctica.

We used multistate mark and re-sight models to account for this and other variables when estimating reproductive rate. 4.The amplitude of temporal variation was much greater for reproduction than for survivorship, indicating that parous (breeding) females maximised survival by reproducing less. This strategy could be successful in fluctuating environments because seals live longer and experience more reproductive occasions. 5.The population had low reproductive rates from 1983 to 1985 and throughout the 1990s.

In those years, potential recruitment into breeding groups was reduced to 50 - 60 % of the cohort before viable pups were even born. 6.Even in years of low reproductive rate, typically half (52%) of the breeding females produced pups. It seemed that individuals differed in their foraging success and thus body condition and / or their functional response to this. 7.There was no evidence for costs of reproduction. We infer that the seals responded to environmental conditions prior to parturition, as opposed to proceeding with reproduction when inadequately resourced and depleting energy resources such that they had lower probability of surviving or reproducing the following year. 8.Synthesis and applications: This study demonstrates a method of estimating reproductive rate that overcomes bias inherent in traditional methods.

Estimated in this way, we propose that reproductive rate is the best indicator of the state of marine ecosystems that can be indexed for Weddell seals. The fields in this dataset are: Year Standard Error Upper confidence interval Lower confidence interval Breeding probability Upper error bar Lower error bar