Improving Monitoring of a Small Mountain Goat Population Using Scenario-Based Habitat and Connectivity Modelling: Pinto Creek, Alberta

Five resistance scenarios model potential behavioural responses of the goats towards industrial activity. Disturbance effects were modelled using a 1000m buffer, representing the distance beyond which industrial noise impact was assumed to be absent, with multiple resistance gradients applied within that zone. Least-cost pathway analysis was used to model potential movement routes between the canyon and surrounding habitat patches under each scenario.

Results indicate that substantial escape terrain occurs outside the protected canyon and that predicted movement pathways vary depending on disturbance avoidance behaviour. As disturbance resistance increases, pathways become altered, but routes remain within disturbance areas if escape terrain is prioritized. These findings suggest that current monitoring may underrepresent the full extent of mountain goat land use and that monitoring should incorporate predicted movement corridors.

This study demonstrates the value of scenario-based spatial modelling for guiding targeted monitoring and identifying priority areas for conservation and disturbance mitigation.