Urban land expansion amplifies surface warming more in dry climate than in wet climate: A global sensitivity study

In climate models, the greenhouse aspect is prescribed with urbanization and emission trajectories embedded in socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). However, the biophysical aspect is omitted because no models currently simulate spatially explicit urban land transition.

Urban land is typically warmer than adjacent natural land due to a large urban‐versus‐natural land contrast in biophysical properties. The lack of biophysical representation of urbanization in climate models raises the possibility that model projection of future warming may be biased low, especially in areas with intense urban land expansion. Here, we conduct a global sensitivity study using a dynamic urban scheme in the Community Earth System Model to quantify the biophysical effect of urban land expansion under the SSP5‐RCP8.5 scenario.