Recent advances in seasonal and multi-annual tropical cyclone forecasting

However, present operational seasonal TC forecasting services still do not meet the requirements of society and stakeholders: current operational products are mainly basin-scale information, while more detailed sub-basin scale information such as potential risks of TC landfall is anticipated for decision making.

To fill this gap and make the TC science and services move forward, this paper reviews recent research and development in seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting. In particular, this paper features new research topics on seasonal TC predictability in neutral conditions of El Nin similar to o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), emerging forecasting techniques of seasonal TC activity including Machine Learning/Artificial Intelligence, and multi-annual TC predictions.