Thermospheric neutral density variation during the "SpaceX" storm: Implications from physics-based whole geospace modeling

The loss was attributed to two moderate geomagnetic storms that occurred consecutively on 3-4 February. We investigate the thermospheric neutral mass density variation during these storms with the Multiscale Atmosphere-Geospace Environment (MAGE) model, a first-principles, fully coupled geospace model.

Simulated neutral density enhancements are validated by Swarm satellite measurements at the altitude of 400-500 km. Comparison with standalone TIEGCM and empirical NRLMSIS 2.0 and DTM-2013 models suggests better performance by MAGE in predicting the maximum density enhancement and resolving the gradual recovery process. Along the Starlink satellite orbit in the middle thermosphere (similar to 200 km altitude), MAGE predicts up to 150% density enhancement near the second storm peak while standalone TIEGCM, NRLMSIS 2.0, and DTM-2013 suggest only similar to 50% increase.