Potential increase in hazard from Mediterranean hurricane activity with global warming

Understanding how Medicanes will change with global warming remains, however, a challenge, because coarse resolution and/or the lack of atmosphere-ocean coupling limit the reliability of numerical simulations.

Here we investigate the Medicanes' response to global warming using a recently developed 25-km global coupled climate model, which features a realistic representation of Medicanes in present climate conditions. It is found that despite a decrease in frequency, Medicanes potentially become more hazardous in the late century, lasting longer and producing stronger winds and rainfall. These changes are associated with a more robust hurricane-like structure and are mainly confined to autumn.