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Testing Instantaneous Causality in Presence of Non Constant Unconditional Covariance

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The problem of testing instantaneous causality between Vector Autoregressive (VAR) variables with time-varying unconditional covariance is investigated.

Description

It is underlined that the standard test does not control the type I errors, while the tests with White (1980) and Heteroscedastic Autocorrelation Consistent (HAC) corrections can suffer from a severe loss of power when the covariance is not constant. Consequently a modified test based on a bootstrap procedure is proposed.

The relevance of the modified test is illustrated through a simulation study. The tests considered in this paper are also compared by investigating the instantaneous causality relations between US macroeconomic variables.

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Stated by source
Mathematics · Sociology
Inferred from text
Simulation 75%

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Provenance · 1 source records, 15 field assertions
SourceKeyLast seenRaw
DataCite10.6084/m9.figshare.1032772.v112 d agoJSON v1
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