Middle atmosphere temperature trends in the twentieth and twenty-rirst centuries imulated with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM)

Results are compared with available satellite observations, including new trend estimates derived from the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry instrument on NASA's TIMED spacecraft.

Modeled and observed trends are shown to be consistent throughout the entire middle atmosphere, from near the tropopause (similar to 16 km) to the lower thermosphere (similar to 95 km) in the period covered by the satellite data. Simulations are extended into the twenty-first century to document the evolution of the global-mean temperature trend profile. We find, consistent with previous studies, a marked change in the trend profile at the turn of the twenty-first century, which is driven by the recovery of stratospheric ozone following the adoption of the Montreal Protocol.