Mathematical modelling for the investigation of Bovine Tuberculosis in Northern Ireland

It is endemic in Northern Ireland (NI), affecting the cattle population which contributes approximately £1 bn per annum to the local economy. The most recent incidence level (rate of occurrence) for bTB in NI is 7.85% during 2019 despite the test-and-slaughter control programme that follows EU guidelines.<br><br>Mathematical methods such as epidemic modelling and social network analysishave been successively applied to bTB-affected locations such as Great Britain, New Zealand, and the USA.

However, these methodshave not previously applied to bTB in NI; therefore, applying these methods in this research provides new insight and knowledge for NI.<br>This research contains the first use of social network analysis of cattle movements in NI. Networks between herds using cattle movements for each month in 2010-2015 were analysed. Influential herds were identified and markets were highlighted as being extremely important to herd connectivity.