Winter-spring drought in Yunnan since the early 19th century and its impact on social governance in China’s southwestern border regions

Additionally, we explored the relationship between extreme low precipitation and the outbreak of specific plague (Yersinia pestis) epidemics. Our findings reveal the presence of persistent drought conditions, which presumably contributed to economic and societal instability preceding the Du Wenxiu Uprising (杜文秀起义, 1856–1873), particularly impacting regions reliant on arable and pastoral agriculture. Large-scale peasant uprisings, concurring in time with drought, occurred in the mid-19th century against the backdrop of the repressive tax policies of the late Qing Dynasty.

Two to three years after the onset of the Yunnan drought during the period 1814–1900, outbreaks of plague occurred and ongoing armed conflicts favored the spread of the disease. In conclusion, our reconstruction not only underscores the occurrence of recurrent multi-year drought conditions in the region but also suggests a potential key role for climate variability in shaping the socio-economic dynamics of this ecologically fragile area during the 19th century.