On the observed trends and changes in global sea surface temperature and air-sea heat fluxes (1984-2006)

Over the period 1984-2006 the global changes are 0.28°C in SST and -9.1 W m⁻² in Q, giving an effective air-sea coupling coefficient of -32 W m⁻² °C⁻¹. The global response in Q expected from SST alone is determined to be -12.9 W m⁻², and the global distribution of the associated coupling coefficient is shown.

Typically, about one-half (6.8 W m⁻²) of this SST effect on heat flux is compensated by changes in the overlying near-surface atmosphere. Slab Ocean Models (SOMs) assume that ocean heating processes do not change from year to year so that a constant annual heat flux would maintain a linear trend in annual SST. However, the necessary 6.1 W m⁻² increase is not found in the downwelling longwave and shortwave fluxes, which combined show a -3 W m⁻² decrease.