Proneness of European catchments to multiyear streamflow droughts

Catchments prone to multiyear droughts are located in southern France, central Europe, and southwestern England. To assess potential future changes in the proneness to multiyear events, we follow a purely empirical approach. We link the proneness of a catchment to multiyear events to its low-flow regime as described by the seasonality ratio.

Our results show that catchments with a melt-dominated flow regime are generally not affected by multiyear droughts, whereas many catchments with a rainfall-dominated flow regime show such proneness. We further find that catchments experiencing regime changes toward a rainfall-dominated flow regime might be more affected by multiyear droughts in the future. Overall, four regions stood out that might potentially become more affected in the future if historical trends in regimes continue: southeastern England, southeastern France, central Norway, and the Pre-Alps.