Table 1_Climate change and the potential global distribution of Agrobacterium tumefaciens: a MaxEnt modeling approach for current and future climate scenarios.pdf

The model demonstrated excellent predictive performance (mean AUC = 0.959; TSS = 0.77). Under current climate, high and very high suitability was concentrated in western and central Europe, the eastern United States, northern India, and eastern China. Jackknife analysis identified mean annual temperature (BIO1) as the dominant climatic driver, followed by precipitation of the driest month (BIO14), precipitation seasonality (BIO15), isothermality (BIO3), and mean diurnal temperature range (BIO2).

Future projections consistently indicated a poleward displacement of suitable habitat, with net gains at higher latitudes and progressive contraction of very high suitability zones in current core regions, effects that intensify markedly under the high-emission RCP 8.5 scenario by 2070. Limiting factor analysis in DIVA-GIS revealed that thermal insufficiency constrains distribution at high latitudes while precipitation seasonality and dry-season moisture deficits dominate in tropical and arid zones.

These findings provide a spatially explicit and climatically informed evidence base for anticipating future shifts in crown gall disease risk and informing climate-adaptive phytosanitary management strategies.</p>