Links between carbon monoxide and climate indices for the southern hemisphere and tropical fire regions

Here we assess the data-driven relationships between CO and climate, aiming to predict atmospheric loading during fire seasons. Observations of total column CO from the Measurements Of Pollution In The Troposphere satellite instrument are used to build a record of monthly anomalies between 2001 and 2016, focusing on seven biomass burning regions of the Southern Hemisphere and tropics.

With the exception of 2015, the range of absolute variability in CO is similar between regions. We model CO anomalies in each of the regions using climate indices for the climate modes: El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, Tropical South Atlantic, and Antarctic Oscillation. Stepwise forward and backward variable selection is used to choose from statistical regression models that use combinations of climate indices, at lag times between 1 and 8 months relative to CO anomalies.