Simulated exoplanets from TESS list of targets

Here, we present estimates of how many exoplanets the TESS mission will detect, the physical properties of the detected planets, and the properties of the stars that those planets orbit. This work uses stars drawn from the TESS Input Catalog (TIC) Candidate Target List and revises yields from prior studies that were based on Galactic models.

We modeled the TESS observing strategy to select approximately 200000 stars at 2-minute cadence, while the remaining stars are observed at 30-minute cadence in full-frame image data. We placed zero or more planets in orbit around each star, with physical properties following measured exoplanet occurrence rates, and used the TESS noise model to predict the derived properties of the detected exoplanets. In the TESS 2-minute cadence mode we estimate that TESS will find 1250+/-70 exoplanets (90% confidence), including 250 smaller than 2R_{Earth}_.