Data from Scenario planning with linked land-sea models inform where forest conservation actions will promote coral reef resilience

This spatially-explicit (60 x 60 m) framework simultaneously tracks changes in multiple benthic and fish indicators as a function of land-use and climate change scenarios. We applied this framework in Kubulau District, Fiji, to investigate the effects of logging, agriculture expansion, and restoration on coral reef resilience.

Under the deforestation scenario, models projected a 4.5-fold sediment increase (>7,000 t. yr -1 ) coupled with a significant decrease in benthic habitat quality across 1,940 ha and a reef fish biomass loss of 60.6 tons. Under the restoration scenario, models projected a small (<30 t. yr -1 ) decrease in exported sediments, resulting in a significant increase in benthic habitat quality across 577 ha and a fish biomass gain of 5.7 tons.