Response of the upper ocean to northeast Pacific atmospheric rivers under climate change

Using a high-resolution, eddy-resolving Earth System Model, atmospheric river impacts on the upper ocean are investigated by analyzing historical and climate change simulations. For atmospheric rivers along the North American coastline, strong winds cause significant dynamic and thermodynamic upper ocean responses.

They push ocean water towards the coast, measured by sea surface height, a process that is amplified under climate change. Mixed layers are deeper upstream of atmospheric rivers, and shallower downstream, however for climate change, shoaling downstream is subdued. Air-sea heat fluxes tend to promote ocean cooling upstream and warming downstream, although different regions have different climate change heat flux signals.