Election Forecasting and the Model of Voting Behavior: an Analysis Based on the 1998 Taipei City\'s Mayoral Election

The purpose of the project is to explore the following problem: 1. to test the effects of Forecasting election models; 2. to explore the factors affecting voters\' choice in Taipei city; 3. to understand the continuities and changes of voters\' electoral behavior; 4. to understand the change of voter\'s party identification and the development of party politics in Taipei city; 5. to understand the effects of ethnic identity and ethnic background on the voting behavior.